Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
